The DemographicR evolutiona nd SustainableD evelopment
SergeyP . Kapitza
lnstitute.f or ph.,-sieapl roblems. RAS.2 Kos|ginas t . I l7 33J. llloscou,. Russia.E -mail: -:setg4,.kopir:d i gmail.(.t,nl
Abstract. Of all the globalp roblemsl oomingo n our commonh orizont haro f populationg roNlh comesi rsl. lt sc(sl hc
scenei br consideringm ajor issueso i sociala nd economicd evelopmenlo. f sciencee. ducationa nd an. of ero\\.lhn nd
sccuriq.l n dealingw ith lhesem attersa new way hast o be fbundt o comprehendth e challengeo l chanae.F or one hls .-
go beyondt he agendao f demograph)a' nd economicss. ociologl'a nd anthropolog)-a nd see mankind as an evolrirr!
sJ..stamw.i thoul a broadv isiono i our pasti t is impossibleto understantdh e presentp redicamcnol f mankind.t hc crisis
no$ fäcingu s in so manl dimensionso flife. and pro-jecot ur furured evelopmenrI_n this Nerr.! \'orld. not diclal(,db \
numerical growlh. educalion and science will become the main issues in a knorvledge socicl) of an intbrntatioridominaledw
orld. ll is then.w heret he old outnumbetrh e young.r o be sustainablea. n eN svstemo l vüluesa r. 10d c\ elop
Keywords: Demoeraphl.C lobalp opulationM. athematicaml odelling.D emographirce !olution.l nlbrmation.E ducilri(rn
l.Introduction
The world is now passing though an immense
demographic revolution, for during this rime of rapid
changesth e very meaningo f our groMh is challengedB. ut
liom the very beginninga straightforwarqdu estions hould
be answered. What does this broad approach. with an
extensive time scale - spanning a million years and
encompassinagl l the peoplee ver inhabitingo ur planetreally
mean for each of us, our town or country. where we
live. For do not the local circumstancepsr ovide all that
matters for explaining the facts of life? Thar is why for
many these studies may seem to be out of place and
irrelevanto what is happeningh erea nd now. The answer
is that all large-scalee vents of history. ever;.,thintgh at
occuned in our past does mafier for the life and wellbeing
of everyo ne of us toda), as thesec onsequenceasr e often
subtlea nd indirect.t he protbundm essageosf historyb eing
slow in coming. but full of rneaning. They deal with
connectionsb etween generationsv. alues,a nd the very
senseo f our existenceT. he intellectuatlr aditiono f Russia
showst he powero fthis approachin our thinkinga nd these
signaisa rem osti n demanda t a time of crisis.T husw e are
dealingw ith an interdisciplinarpyr oblemi n an attetnprr o
describeth eh umane xperienceri sht liom its beginning.
Probably the first to apply mathemaricarl easoningt o
sociai problems was Thomas Malthus. Malthus proposed
the populationp nciple- that resourcess et the limits to
growth,a nd hungerl imits the multiplicationo f people.H is
ideash aveh ad singulari nfluenceo n econornistsp.o litical
scientistsa nd moral philosophersfo r the lastt wo hundred
vears. Interest in his legac! have been aroused b1- the
reportst o the Club of Rome suggestingth at the 'limirs to
gro\,l'th'ared uet o limits in resources.
The followings tudyr efutest heseM althusianc onceprsa nd
indicates that in an open. evolving and self-organising
system of the global population. intemal processes
determineg rowth.S tateda s the populationim perativet.h is
principleo peratest hroughourt he whole developmenot f
mankind. What determines global development is the
gro\4'tha nd distriburiono f knowledgeT. hat is $,hvm odern
socieryi s describeda sa knowledgeo r infonnarions ocien.
To acceptt hjs.a nerv\ vay for describingo ur growthh ast o
be workedo ut.t aking into accountt he past.w hich is much
closert hanw e think at the presenct riticals tageo f change.
2. Methods of Mathematical Modelling
Mathematicarnl odellingw. hich to somer nar scernr o l . c
abstracta nd detachedm. echanistica nd lacking in huntan
compassionp rovidesf or a quantitatived escriptiono i t,ur
development.N ow these methods are insrrLrrrenrailn
developingth e theoryo f slobalp opularionsr o\!rh l l . l l
Thesem ethodsw. ith new metaphorse. nlarsel lte scope( rJ'
our thinkinga nd vision.M ost ofthesec onceptsc otnel ionr
physics are of a modern. non-linear vintage like
collective interactionsc. haos and self-organisationrr ith
causalitv expressedin probabilistict erms. In developing
the modelb y averagingth e dataa ndp rocessesr.h en umbef
of variables are reduced to a single one - to th€ global
population.I n this case the gro\a.rhr ate is seen ro bc
proportionatlo the squareo f the toraln urnbero f peoplet r|r
Eanh expressing the network cornpleritr of rl'te enrrre
populatioonf the world.a sa singled vnarnics rsrerr
In this wa.v one can get awar from tl'te curse r\t'
complexity . for Herben Simon has noted that Fom rear:
of experience in modelling compler srsrerns trn
computeß, which every year have grorvn larger and t-astef.
have tausht us that brute force does not can\ us alon! a
ro,""arlo adt o understandinssu chs ysrernsi.l lodellinq.r hen
callsf or someb asicp rinciplest o lnanager hisc ornple\ir\ "
Ther nodeils b asedo n a holisricd escriptiobny inrroducinr:
a phenomenologicainl teractionr. .vhichta kes into acctrunt
all relevant factors of social. economic. cultural. moral.
ethnicala ndb iologicaln aturec ontributinsr o grosrh. This
non-linear global co-operative interaction cannor t'r
reducedb y an addjtiono fall panial factorsa nd rhati s Nh\
reductionismt odelsd o nol uork. To this interactiornr e
owe the stableh vperbolicb low-upo f humann untbersF. r-,f
to date human beinss have spread all over the slLrbe anJ
outnumberb 1 five orderso f magnitude- a 1000 00 rinrer.
more than all other anirnals of cornparable size and
position in the food chain. Onll' domestic anirnals.
husbandebdy man.*a rea tachedt o the hurnanp opulatit-rn
What is remarkableth at growth.i n the first appro\imaiion.
is tbr more than a million !ears dlnamicall\ s e l t - - s i r n i l l l
ands calesB. f introducingt he humanl ite spant rf -15r etr.
theI imitso fscalingm a) be detenninedT.h isp rt\idei t i r r
a veryp lausiblee stimatefb r theb esinninso f rlteh uman
*ln thisr e\tt het ermm dna ndm nnkindrc lcrt o lhac cnu:l /,r'r,,
story 4 5 million ),earsa go and describesth e passage
through the demographict ransition.U p to the transition
groMh follows a hyperbolic curve, going off to infinity, as
it approachesIr = 2000. when an abrupt changei n the
pattemo f groMh takesp lace.T he globalp opulationle vels
off at l0 12 biilion in the foreseeablefu ture. in effect
doublingt he recentp opulationo fNr : 6 billioni nI ear2 000.
3. The Population Imperative and Time in History
Modellingg lobal populationg rowth is basedo n the ideas
of synergetics[3 ]. The whole populationo f the world is
treateda s a systerna, singlee ntity,a ll the detailso f rvhich
and eventsa re averageda nd mixed up in its totalit). The
globalp opulationis both isolateda ndo pen,m eaningt hat it
can draw on the resourceso f the environnrent-o f the
outsidew orld.T he wholea pproachis essentiallvs tatistical
and cannot be expected to take into account the details.
however significant they mal" seem. Paftial and chaotic
events of current history should be seen against the
backdrop of the total picture. rvhere average growth is
determinedb y the principleo f the populationi rnpetative.
Althought he rateo fgrowth is proportionatlo the squareo f
the globalp opulationth is irnpliesa memoryo fthe pastl br
we reallyd ealw ith the averagev alueso fthe variables.
The factor driving the development of rnankind is
generalisedin formation.T he distributiona nd transl'ero f
information ftom one generation to the next - knowledge
and technology, customs and crafts. art and religion. and.
finally. ideasa nd conceptso f science this is peculiart o
humans and human society. and rvhat rnakes us essentiall)
different liom all animals. Consider the ver)'first steps of
a humanb eing,w hich are quite diff'erenftr otrrt hoseo f an
animal.I n this processe ducationa nd training in all fblnrs
and varietiesi,n cludingg ames.i s a major part of hurnan
development. lt begins with a long childhood. first
leamingt o speaka nd masteringl anguage.b eing brour:ht
up, taughta nd educatedin the making of a man.t o usea n
old expressiona.s a membero f societv.T his now takes2 0
to 30 yearsa nd is essentiaflo r everyh umanb eing.A t the
samet ime this postponesth e child-baringa ge to its Iimits.
Information is multiplied and transmitted b1 a chain
reactionv erticallyb etweeng enerationse stablishingIi nks
with the pastd eeplye ntrenchedin the per-sonalitoyf- each
person.ln formationi s alsot ransfenedh orizontally- in the
space of the global informational interaction.
synchronizingt he grand periods of developrnents. een
throushoutth e agesi n the globalp opulations )stem.
An important outcome of the model is the logarithrnic
ffansfonnationo f time of sociald eveloprnenta.s quadratic
gro\4'th accelerates over the ages. Grolvth is no1
exponential, although at any moment in the past an
instantaneouesx ponentiatli me of gro\th may be rvorked
out. This exponentiatli me is equalt o the tine reckoned
flom the high point of the global dernographitcr ansition
from year fi :2000, or to the tirne beforep resent.ln this
caset he compressiono f tirnem akest he tilne from the end
of a past cycle equal to half of the cycle's duration. Thus
the Lower Paleolithicla steda million yeaß. leavingh alf a
million for all futüred evelopmentT. he Middle Ages lasted
a thousand years and ended 500 yeam ago. Approaching
the presenrt he rateso f growLha nd developrnenct an be
compressendo more. The populationb lows up and enters
the period of the globai denrographitcr ansition.w hich is
only 90 yearsl ong leadingt o a constangt lobalp opulation.
The results of modelling are all shown in Table L Ma-iof
cycles of globai history. observed in our past. are
interpreted as phases. punctualed b] transitions and
indicatingth eg oss stabilit-ov f growth.
10000
l 0
7
N
-::--/
5 ö 17 {
-2000 -1000 I At) 1000 2000 30f,tr '1,
lcrr
Figure l. World populationfi om 2000B C to 3000A D.
Asymptotilcim ito fglobalp opulatioNn -=10- l2 billions.
I - datäf or globalp opulation[ .1] . 2 - blos-up modelo fgro$'th.
3 - dcmographic transition. 4 - stabilized population.
5 - Ancient $'orld- 6 Middle Ages. 7 - Modemi!. 8 Recenl
histoq. t the Plague. J - error bar. o f1=2000. N1-6 billion.
On a semi-logarithmipc lot c\ponentialg ro*.th will appeara s a
straightl ine and at no time can describeth e gro$'tho f the global
population.A s the demographict ransitioni s approachedt-h e
tirnc of history and developnrenils comprcssedr.v ith 9 billion
peopleI iving throughe achh istoricp criodi ndicatedS. eeT able L
The model is justified not only by the extent to which the
results ofmodelling correspond to the facts oflife, but also
by the fundamenta) principles of systemic gowth. When
depicting the overall process of development by an
essentiallyn on-linearm odel it shouldb e kept in mind that
it cannot be directly applied to local or regional growth.
for we are dealingw ith a collectivep henomenonB. ut the
globalp rocesso f developmendt efinite)yd oesi nfluencea ll
of its pans by the connectionsa nd interactionism plied in
the model and acting in the world. Any part of the global
system that is separated ilom the main body of mankind
will inevitably lag in its growth and development.
The most important changes are due to the limits of an
infonration-dominated sociery, the real limits to gorvth
where of central importance become culture, science and
educatjon. For during the demographic rcvolution the
crisis is due not to a limit, real or imagined,o f resources,
but to the mismatch of our ideas and management of
societ-va t large. This should be of our main concem in
assessingt he future of the wolld, as it enters its greatest
crisis in the 21" century. breaking awav lrom explosive
gro\lth to a constant population. Only after the
demographic revolution. as a new equilibrium will be
establisheds.u stainabldee velopmenct ouldb e soughtf or.
1000
Table l. Grorvth and development of mankind shown on a logarithmic time scale
EpochC).cle
Pl'rase
Dat,. Numbeor l
people Cultural period AT
\ears
Events in histor'\. culturc and
lechnololrv
c
T L
2200
2050
2000
llx l0e
9t i0"
6x1O'q
Stabilisingg lobal
Population
Globalp opulatiolnim il l0-llx l 0 '
Changingil ged istribution
Globalisation
Clobald emographic Lirbanisationl.n tcrnet
revolutlon
B
l t
1840
i500
500 A.D
2000 BC
9000
29 000
80 000
220 000
600 000
600 000
l x l 0 t
lx l 0 '
l 0 s
10'/
10"
l 0
45 Biotechnolog)'
Computers. Nuclear cncr-ey
World Wars
Elcctric po\\,er
Induslrial fe!olution
Prlnting. Universilies
Geographic discoveries
Fall of Rone
Christ. Muhamrnad
Creek civilisätion. A\ial time.
China.C onlucius.1 ndia.B uddhd
l 0 Rerent
9 Modemin: i40
8 Middle Ages I 000
7 Ancient World 2 500
6 Neolithic 7 000
Mesopotami.EL gtp t
Wriling- Cities
DorncsticationA. gricultufe
Bronzc
M icroliths
America populalcd
ShamanismL-a nguage
Ilonla sapiens
Speech. Fire domesticated
Europc and Asia populated
Hand axcs
Choppers
Hono hahilis
5 Mesolithic 20 000
4 Moustier 51000
l Acheulean 1100 00
2 Chcllcs i80 000
Oldurvai l 000 000
To 4-5Ma ( l ) Anthropogene 3 0000 00 Hominidas eparattel om Hominoids
In this Table dates are taken liom the generally accepted
sources and they follow, within acceptable errors. those
calcuiatedI.t hast o be notedt hatt he Neolithicr evolution,
when a rnarkedc hangedh appenedin our developinenti,s
right in the niddle of our past, if seen on a logarithmic
scaie. indicating the singularity of this event.
4. The Global Demographic Revolution
Demographicd ata and the model indicatet hat mankindi s
now rapidly passing through a critical period of the
derrographic transition. This is a verjtable revolution.
drasticallyc hangingo ur long-establishepda ttemo f growth
and developrnentF. or more than a million yearsm an was
corcemed rvith numerical gror.th. Growth on all counts
more children. lnore food. Iuore space. rnore anns. more
power in all dimensionso f life. At presenth is paradigm
ofgrowth is changinga. changen evere xperiencebde fore.
It is rvell establishedth at all countriesp ass through a
maximum grorvth mte at the demographic transition and,
hopefulJy, head for a stable population. This has been
obsenedf or all developedc ountriesa nd is nou,beings een
in countries of the developing world. The global
demographict mnsition is shown on Fig. 2. During the
transition death and bifih rates rapidl)" change. beginning
with an initial decreasein the deathr ate.T he consequent
fall in the birth rate starts later. and is accompanied b]
economicd evelopmenta.n increasein standardo f lif'ea nd
the developmenot fhealth servicesI,e adingt o a Jongerli lt
expectancyD. uet o the interactiono lthese two factors.t he
groMh ratep assesth roughi ts maximumv alue.
For any specific country migration rnay' tnodil-r' this
idealised description, but g)obally emigration does not
enteri nto the gro\,vthra tes incet he populationi s lirnitedt o
our planet.T his sequenceo f eventss howst hat the \\'hole
change is rapid and at no point is the population in an)
state of relative equilibriurn. We are dealing with a nonequilibrium
phase transition. centred on lear 2000 - a
veritables hockt hat couldh ardJlh' appenf aster.A s a resuit
of the transition the population ceases to gron and a
marked change in the age distribution of the population
developsT. his is the last in the sequenceo f eventsa nd a
very significant translonnation to happen in a sociel'.
These processesa re accompaniedb y urbanisationi.v ith
vast movements of rural populations to to\ 'ns. As the
population of the rvorld acts as a truly global communitv.
undergoing a colnmon transformation, the transition in the
developed and developing countries are happening
practicalh' at the samet ime. They are separatedb y a mere
50 vears. shou,ing that in a fundamental way these
countriesa ren ot so differenta s usuallya ssumedT. hust he
transjtioni s a powerful demonstrationo f the interaction
betweenth eses etso f countriesl.e adinst o slobalisation.
life, including global securit-v, social and econornic
behaviourl.n evitablyi t \.villd elnandm eanst o supporrt he
older generations. leading to greater expenditures for
health services and social security. Probabl-v one can
expect that society could eainfullv use the expertise of dre
old, re-establishintgie s betweeng enerationsin a farnily.
Then the post-transitiona ge structurew ill result in the
developmenot f new values in societ-vn. ow lacking the
inertia,m emoryo fgrowth ofhurnann umbers.
\ . ,
ttffi
Iti{j t0ü0 t0ii.t )nü ti50 i Jiilf
o . "
a , " .
- $
: .10
100
90
s0
10
0
Figure2 . Theg lobald emographtirca nsition1 750- 2100
Annuagl ro\rtha verageodv era decade|: - de\,elopecdo untries.
I - derelopingc ountriesT.h e globalt ransitionis remarkably
shon\ \ith a \{idtho l onlJ 90) ,earsc.e ntreodn y ear1 1=2 000.
The global population transition takes only 90 years, and
during this time. which is only l/50 000 ofall our history.
a fundamentaclh angei n the modeo fgrowth ofmankind is
to happenA. differenti nrageo fthe transitionis seen.i f we
refer to the nurnber ofpeople - some l0 billion who are
to live throught he demographicfa nsition. This is l/loth
of the hundred billion peopie who ever lived, and is the
chance for a hunan being to be caught into this critical
period ofrapid change.
5. The SustainablWe orld of the Future
The modele quatesth e rate of growth to the development
of the population systern, seen as a function of the global
population. The quadratic term was decisive in
determiningg roMh all througho ur historya nd expresses
the contribution of the infonnational component to the
global production factor. This can be seen as the
dominationo f the 'software'o f globald evelopmentin, put,
rvhich is associatedw ith culture. sciencea nd all those
factor' like co-operationc. onrrnunicationc.o nsciousness
and memoryi n contributingt o the rneta-economigcr owth
of rnankind. As the principal factor of growth it indicates
the primacy of the collectivep rocessesin society,w hich
$e owe to our highly developedb rain and rnind,t he main
and peculiar characteristic ofa conscientious H. sopiens.
As the population of the rvorld u,ill grow no longer. the
numbero folder peopler vill outnurnbetrh e )oung. This is
an essentiarl esulto f the demographictr ansition.a lready
seen in derelopedc ountries.w here societiesa re €Lening
much older.T he restructuringo f the agep yramid,a rapid
and profoundt ransitiont o a stableg lobalp opulationw, ill
inevitablyl eadt o far-reachingc hangesin manya spectso f
Figure 3. Change in age distribution for the global
populationlc 50 I I 50.{ U N data).
I - ageg rouple sst hanl ,l ]cars.2 - groupo ldert han6 5 \'ears.
3 - ageg roupo ldert han8 0 1earsA. - distributioinn developing
countdesa nd B distributioin developecdo untrieisn f000.
After the Rio 1992 and Johannesbur2g0 02 Intemational
Conferencetsh e concepto f sustainabled evelopmenht as
been put forward.T he idea of sustainabilibr"v asm ainll,
developed in Gro Brundtland's report (Our Common
Future)()1 987)a nd is formulateda s" meetingt he demands
of th€ present without inliingine the lights of the next
gen€ration in satisS/ing its dentands". The concept of
sustainability should be seen in connection with the
demographic irnperative. All history has unequivocally
shown that the go$'th of population had precedence over
the environmentM. ostly under econonic pressurep eople
moved and resettled. mjgrated to other parts of the q,orld
in search of space and resources. What really matters and
creates social disparities and economic rnisery is not a
global lack of basic resources. but inequity in their
distribution - changes that can be expressed as the
challenge in pursuit of a qualin, of life l4).
It is of interestto discussth e long-termc hangesth at canb e
expected in the world as it passes into a new stage of
developmenta fter the transition.B oth demographya nd
rnodelling, using different rnethods. show that the
populationo fthe rvorld is to rapidly stabilisea t l0 to l2
billion, although the latest revised forecasts of the UN
PopulationD ivision indicates ome9 billion for year 2300.
In practicatle rmsa ll groMh rvill happeni n the developing
world by the end of 2l" century and wiil be accompanied
by a drastic change in the age structure and a lowering of
the total fenility rate. For at present, in developed
countriesth e TFR is below l.l5 (1.07 for Spain).T hus
theses ocietiesd emographicallayr en ot sustainablaen d are
doornedi.f lhe TFR doesn ot go up ro :.1 - Ll5 children
for each woman. The low birth rates in all developed
4
1750 1600 ta:0 t900 1050 :000 t0i0 :tol)
countriesa re a signalo f a major crisiso f prevalenvt alues
in these societies. These differences in the TFR are a
sourceo f great instabilit-va nd in the coming yearss ome
large-scalem igrationsa nd social disruptionsa re to be
expected. They are well beyond the power of the states to
be controlled be force alone, as seen with the rapid growth
ofthe numberso fillegal migrantsT. hesei ssuesa rel iankly
discussedb y PatrickB uchananin
our Country and Civilisation). New York.2002.
In recent events one can discem the f€atures of a future
world with a stabilisedp opulation.I n this world numerical
growth,p rimarilye xpressedb y populationg rowth,w ill no
longer dominate. The connection between population
gowth and the squareo f global populationw ill ceaset o
express development. ln this case there are two
altematives- one is stagnationo f developrnenint a world
of zero growth or evend ecliningp opulationT. he other is
finding a new dimensionf or developmenta, nd, as the
quanritative groMh of the past is gone. there is a
possibility for qualitativeg rowth and development.A t
presenitn developedc ountriesth erei s a significanst hift of
the workforce from the production sector to services -
health,e ducations. ciencea. nd leisurei ndicatingth e shape
ofthings to corne.
Thesen ew processeosf developmenat re accompaniedb y
an internationalisatioonf finance and technology.T he
rapid transfer of information and money has becorne the
principal feature of globalisation.T he recenta nd most
powerful global information factor is now the Intemet.
With the mass media. these are the main instruments of
changea nd influence.l n a world whereg lobalisationh as
becomea n imminenta nd dominantf eature.t he opposing
trend of culturald iversificationi s manifest.T his may be
seena s the confrontationo f the 'hardware'o f civilisation
with the 'software' of culture. which does not match the
pace of progress.T his present dispariry"i n the go\4h and
developmenot f mankinds houldb e resolvedb y a dialog.
rather than a clash of civilisations.
Dynamics of population growth influence global security.
the balance of economic and military power. In the
foreseeablefu ture annies will change.I n countrjest hat
have passed through the transition there are fewer
demographic resources to man by conscription the huge
anries of the recent past. On the one hand. low growth
rates and stagnant populations do not create conditions for
conflict. for large-scale world wars, as happened in the
recent past. On the other hand. science and high
technology have changed the character of arms in modern
warfare. Could the mission of these new armed forces be
the containmenot f peace.c ontrollingm igmtion-f ighting
oreanized crirne and terorism, rather than war and
operations leading to territorial gains and a New World
Order? In fact. terrorism should be seen as a symptom of
growing tensions and disparities rather than a danger itself.
The lasts ourceso fa real large-scalceo nflicta r€c ountries
passingth rought he demographictr ansitiona t its explosive
stageT. oday,w hen in a world wheret he rateo f numerical
growth has reached its absolute maximum and mankind is
passinga decisive threshold in its developmentt,h ese
strains and inequities could still lead to rnajor conflicts
within and with the rapidly developingc ountries.I n these
casesd ernographifca ctorsm ay becomec ritical indicators
of growing disparities.
Humanity is now passing through the demographic
revolutionl iom an infonnation- moderateds ocietl to an
iniormation dominated global knowledge societ] [-5].
The future in the post-industriarl. vorldr .villb e determined
not by the productiono ffood or energy.b y the 'hardr.vare'.
but by the 'software'o f our global populations ystern.I n
this New World it will be not the volume of production
that matteß, but the wa), these results of the industn and
culturald evelopmenat re distributedT. his is to happeni n
an economy rvith zero growth of human nurnbers in a
1900 1920 1940 1950 1980 2000
Figure 4. DeindustrializationC: hanges in total U.S.
workforcei n 20'r'century(i n %).
These are the boundary conditions for the future. In this
future, human capital of an educated societ-v will.
hopefully.I eadt o establishingn ew norrnso f socialv alues.
It rvill be detenninedm ore thane ver b1,e ducationa nd the
aftitudes and values propagated by the mass rredia. The
mass media. in the first place television. has )et to
recognise its responsibiliq for its influence on social
capital and in taking culture and morals seriousl). Thus. a
new set of values in the r.vorld could ernerge. rvhere
numericagl rowthw ill ceaset o dominateo ur rnentality.ln
a stabilisedw orld with a slowing down of developrnenta.
new ecologicaal nd socialc onsciousnesrsn aya ppear.w ith
oulspokecnr iticismo f consurnerisamn dc apitalisrn.
In the post-transitionasol cierj-e ducationr vill take up nrore
time and effort than at any other period in the history of
humankindF. or example,a t presenitn developedc ountries
lifelonge ducationis expandinga nd the educationin dustry
is becoming a major sector of the economy. The extensive
time devotedt o educationi s a direct expressiono f the
infomation crisisa nd indicatesth at humanitvi s definiteli
close to its capacity to train and educate the next
generationl.n fact. time spento n educationi s one of the
reasonslo r lo\ TFR' in developedc ountries.
Finally, fundamental science. which since the time of
CopemicusG. alileoa nd Darwin hasd evelopeda s a global
culturalp henomenonp, ractisedi ntemationallv.r vill no\v
demandb oths upporta nda mandateto exerciseit s cultural
andm oralr esponsibilitieass neverb efore.
äan
= 30
"1
; ( u
societyw ith a predominancoef older people.
6. Conclusions
For the population of the world the theoly provides a
description of the gross features of the growth and
evolution of rnankind. Ovel the entire course of
deve)opment a constant trend in the growth of human
numbers is discerned. rvhich follorvs a s e l f - s i r r i l a r
pattem of growth. expressing the dynanric invariance
o' developmentH. urranitl.r i-shtf rom ils besinning..s
seen as an infonnatlon society. Its growth is due to a direct
transfer of acquired infonnation. leading to a Lamarckjan
rathert han a Darwinianm echanismo f culturali nheritance
ande volutionI.n this casee conomjcg rorvtha nd social
development are non-linearly coupled and rrutually
determine the pace of history. At present its inherent
limits, are determinedn ot b)' resourceso r space,b ut by
the'limits to birth in the'waf of the wombs .
Global population dynarnics has a drive and logic of its
own. expressedb ), the population imperative.O nly by
reachinga n in-depth and fundamentalu nderstandingo f
thesec ornple)ii nterdisciplinaryp roblemsc an we expect
theseu niversails suesto be faceda ndr esponsiblyre solved
by sensibles ociala nde conomicp ollcres.
The rapid derrographic revolution is an event of grcat
significancea. nd in the story of rnankindi t far surpasses
the Neolithic revolution and all others known in history,
ranking in jts irnpoftancew ith tlre emergenceo f Honro.
endowedw ith a mind and consciousnessO.n ly a future
anthropologisst hall have a chanceo f understandingth e
rnagnitude of the transition, which rrankind is no\a, to
experienceH. e will havet o wait only 50 to 100y ears not
the rrillion yearst hat havep asseds incet he earlys tageso f
our origins,t o assestsh e challengeo f changes.
This period of mpid changei s definitelyr esponsiblefb r
much of the stress and strain ol modem life. the great
disruptionn ow upsettingt he long-establishepda ttemso f
sociald eveloprnentF. or ast he nurnberst.h e 'hardware'o f
our world are changing fasler than the social conditions.
ideas. the global 'software has no time to keep up, be it
the pressureo f the environmento r folly of technological
progress. The nature of this imminent transformation is yet
to be fully understooda nd its consequenceass sessedT.h is
can be seena s the intellectualc hallengef acing both the
hard sciencesa nd the humanities.M oreover.i n a world
where numerical growth is decoupled fi'om development, it
is not yet obvious whether humanity will take up the path
of qualitative growth, or entei a pattern of slow
developmente, venb ecomings tagnanat ndd ecayinga s our
civilisationp assesin to oblivion lackingl ong{errnv ision.
At this point it is appropriate to inquire rvhat could be
the next step in the evolution of mankind. Up to the
present the biology of the human tace has not changed
and was determined by nature. Nolv there is a
possibility to interfere and moderate the biology - the
genetic make-up ol mankjnd - as humanity itself can
becomea conscientiouasc tor.I t ma! well be that these
factors are to limit the extent of the model and at the
same time indicate the agents for change. which could
ultirnatell'set a new diinension for the developinent of
mankind. ln this case, if humanity is morally and
ethically readl for such interference. it may become
rnasteor f its evolutiona ndw ill go beyondt he lirnitss et
by the model-a s its premisesr vill no longerb e valid.
Although. with the sheers izeo fthe $orld populationa nd
the rateo f events.it is difficuit to irnagineh orv the rvorld
communit_cva n have a majol effect on the population
iinperativew ith a pronouncedla ck of gJobagl overnance.
As the fundarnentauln derstandinogf growth is still rather
lirnited, definitive advice for action is hard to provide -
apan f|om very generalr ecomrnendationws.i ich lead to
cunent dernoglaphipco licies.T he fdte ol chdrJ-et.l , e
ultirnatceo mpressioorI the.ysterricF ieen-rirno. lhistorr
at the dernographihc 'ansitionl.e avesn o time fbr political
decisionsto be workedo ut and properlyi rnplernentedF.o r
it is now whent he tirne-scaleo fhistory andp oliticsm erge.
Probably the most important issue is by all rneans to
ensuret he stabilitya nd securityo fthe world to be. as the
prerequisitefo r resolving global problems.T he rate of
change itself lead5 Io Ihe abcence of loitl ternt
commitmentas nd sociallyr elevantp laningi n society.T his
is all the mores ignificantd uringt he singulare pocho f the
derrographic revolution, when these tensions are the
greatestT. his leadst o the currentl osso f governancel.a w
and order,c orruption.c rirrinality with moral decaya nd a
rise ol irationality with decay in reason. seen on man)
levelso f societya nd politicals tructureso f the world. lt is
how present crisis in the collapse of the global financial
systerns houldb e seena st he losso fsysternics tabilit).
These studies are the outcome of an atternpt to develop
interdisciplinary undeßtanding by bridging ideas and
methodsc omingf rom areaso f researchlo ng separatedb 1
traditiona nd history.A s the rnodeli s supportedb ) fufthef
researcha nd gainsg round.t he insighti t providess hould
leadt o greateru nderstandinogf the presents tateo f world
affairs. It may offer a common fiame of refererce for
anthropologya nd history.d emographya nd sociology.f or
studiesin humane volutiona nd geneticsF. or econorristsit
providesa universaal nd generalf iamervorkf or assessing
our growth and developmentF. or doctorsa nd politicians
alike it cani ndicatet he sourceso fstressa ndt ensioni n this
tmnsient period. unique thlouqhout all humair
developmenat nd affectingb oth the individLraal nd societl'
in tenns of personal and global security and stabilit). In
the emergingr .vorldo f a stabilisedg lobal populationt here
will be a lot of restructuretdi me to resolvet hesep roblems
of our own making, hopefully managing thern withoul a
major disruptiona, s the challelrgeo f growth will ceaset o
dorninate our life. This ura.v' provide us with some
optirriismin facingt he presenpt redicamenot f nankind.
References
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.fhe
SiatisticaTlh eoryo l GlobalP opulation
Groulh. In
2. KapitzaS. .P..G lobalP opulalionB lorr.upa nd r\l1cr.l hc
DemographRice volutioann dI nlbrmatioSno cict),.A R cpoll
to theC luho fRome.H amburgf.r 4osco*2.0 07.
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Self-organiziSngls temsa ndD evicesS. pringerl.l crlirr-l 9lJi.
4. Cohen J.l-lo$m an) Peoplec ant heE rrth suppoft').')1 \.' . I 991
j. To\\ardsk no\vledges ocietiesD. irectof JeromeB inde.
Prefäcbev KoichuroN 4atsuurUaN. FISCOP.a ris.2 005.
Kapitza S P, ""The impact of the demographic transition
Kapitza S P, ""The impact of the demographic transition
Global Population Blow-up and After:
The DemographicR evolutiona nd SustainableD evelopment
SergeyP . Kapitza
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